Ethiopia and Eritrea - Bad words over Badme

Dec 13th 2007 | NAIROBI
From The Economist print edition

A bitter old row shows no sign of fading

"SHOULD Eritrea launch another war, we will make certain it will never ever dream of entertaining or thinking about war again." So said Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, in a recent speech to Parliament. His country did not seek war, he stressed. But if Eritrea launched a "suicidal" attack, it would be driven into the sea.

Eritrea has heard it before. Ethiopia tried to drive it into the sea at Massawa between 1998 and 2000, and failed. Instead, 70,000 on both sides died in trench warfare; a stalemate led to a truce. This time Mr Zenawi's belligerence comes as the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission wound up business this month, with no agreed demarcation. In 2002 it awarded the disputed village of Badme to Eritrea. Ethiopia rejected the verdict, and has since used diplomatic verbiage to obfuscate and stall.

Eritrea naturally took the commission at its word but under its authoritarian president, Issaias Afwerki, has alienated just about every sympathiser. As his rule has become harsher and more erratic, the border issue has loomed larger in Eritrea's national psyche. Mr Afwerki may disgust his compatriots by torturing and imprisoning his critics. But he knows Eritreans will back him over Badme.

The border is more militarised than ever. According to the International Crisis Group, a think-tank, Eritrea has 4,000 troops inside a supposedly demilitarised buffer zone and a further 120,000 dug in along its side of the craggy border that is 1,000km (621 miles) long. On its side, Ethiopia has 100,000 troops.

A UN monitoring force is meant to pack up next month but may stay on. The tension gives both countries an excuse to spend more on guns and spies, some to be turned on domestic enemies. Neither country can afford such things. Ethiopia, at least 75m-strong, is bogged down in Somalia and fighting separatists in the Ogaden desert; Mr Zenawi says he is putting Ethiopia's defence budget up by 17% to $390m. Eritrea, with only 5m people, simply cannot keep up.

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